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Step Forward is the best-selling standards-based, four-skills course that improves student outcomes by integrating language instruction into real-life contexts. Designed to build workplace skills, the vocabulary in Step Forward is based on the vocabulary of the Oxford Picture Dictionary - providing easy supplementing and a rich, integrated instructional experience.

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• Sales Rank: #820775 in Books
• Published on: 2008-08-22
• Original language: English
• Number of items: 1
• Dimensions: 8.40" h x .40" w x 10.90" l, 1.15 pounds
• Binding: Paperback
• 174 pages

About the Author
Jayme Adelson-Goldstein, co-author of The Oxford Picture Dictionary is an adult education ESL teacher, curriculum consultant, and certified teacher trainer. She has given professional development workshops for adult education instructors throughout the United States on topics such as
student-centered instruction, ESL techniques and multilevel instruction.

Most helpful customer reviews

0 of 0 people found the following review helpful.
Nice, intermediate English instruction,
By AyrRifle
This book is the third in a series that will provide a step in the stairs to English proficiency. It is well laid out and well within reach of the "Step Forward 1" book. We have ordered the workbook also as a lower cost solution to providing materials for the students (refugees) as we are a very low budget program.

0 of 0 people found the following review helpful.
Five Stars
By Amazon Customer
Great item

0 of 0 people found the following review helpful.
Four Stars
By Rosario Bustamante
Great book.

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[A673.Ebook] Ebook Download Statistical Models Based on Counting Processes (Springer Series in Statistics), by PER KRAGH ANDERSEN, Ornulf Borgan, Richard D. Gill, Nie

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Modern survival analysis and more general event history analysis may be effectively handled within the mathematical framework of counting processes. This book presents this theory, which has been the subject of intense research activity over the past 15 years. The exposition of the theory is integrated with careful presentation of many practical examples, drawn almost exclusively from the authors'own experience, with detailed numerical and graphical illustrations. Although Statistical Models Based on Counting Processes may be viewed as a research monograph for mathematical statisticians and biostatisticians, almost all the methods are given in concrete detail for use in practice by other mathematically oriented researchers studying event histories (demographers, econometricians, epidemiologists, actuarial mathematicians, reliability engineers and biologists). Much of the material has so far only been available in the journal literature (if at all), and so a wide variety of researchers will find this an invaluable survey of the subject.

• Sales Rank: #1327142 in Books
• Published on: 2013-10-04
• Ingredients: Example Ingredients
• Original language: English
• Number of items: 1
• Dimensions: 9.25" h x 1.77" w x 6.10" l, 2.38 pounds
• Binding: Paperback
• 784 pages

Review

"This book is a masterful account of the counting process approach...is certain to be the standard reference for the area, and should be on the bookshelf of anyone interested in event-history analysis." International Statistical Institute Short Book Reviews

"...this impressive reference, which contains a a wealth of powerful mathematics, practical examples, and analytic insights, as well as a complete integration of historical developments and recent advances in event history analysis." Journal of the American Statistical Association

Most helpful customer reviews

45 of 46 people found the following review helpful.
counting process approach to survival analysis
By Michael R. Chernick
Another reviewer has given a detailed and accurate account of this book which may already be considered a classic. So I can be brief in my remarks. Odd Aalen in his thesis work developed a lot of the theory of counting processes. Since survival analysis is based on time to event data and the study of the reliability of repairable systems involves counting recurrences point or counting processes can be used to construct statistical models that can be used in these disciplines. These results are important to inferences about survival curves, product warranties, and recurrent events that are important in clinical trials and biostatistics in general as well as in reliability engineering.

This text is not an applied book but rather a very deep theoretical book that requires sophisticated mathematics and probability theory. There are applications of this powerful theory both in univariate and multivariate survival analysis. This book can be challenging to many readers but can provide a deep understanding of the theory. For the applications the following books would be helpful (1) Nelson's life data analysis book, (2) the book by Kalbfleish and Prentice, (3) Lawless and (4) Elant-Johnson and Johnson to name a few good ones. For the theory and applications in multivariate survival analysis I recommend the book by Hougaard who is a Danish statistician with a great deal of clinical experience from his years of working on diabetes trials at Novo Nordisk.

18 of 18 people found the following review helpful.
Extremely Advanced Treatment of Multivariate Survival Analysis
By Paul Thurston
This book is the definitive text on multivariate survival analysis and takes the reader well-beyond the introductory treatment found in Hougaard's "Analysis of Multivariate Survival Data". Andersen, et al. is a good addition to the library of anyone working with data containing more than one cause of failure.

However, Andersen, et al. demand a great deal from the reader and the prerequisite list here is rather extensive. Minimal preparation for this book starts with Hosmer & Lemeshow's Applied Survival Analysis: Regression Modeling of Time to Event Data . You'll need to understand modern real analysis, at least up through the Radon-Nikodym Theorem. I recommend Rudin's Real and Complex Analysis. You'll also need good understanding of the martingale theory of univariate counting processes. I recommend Fleming & Harrington's Counting Processes and Survival Analysis. Next, you'll need a solid understanding of Markov processes. I highly recommend Stroock's An Introduction to Markov Processes. Pay particularly close attention to Stroock's treatment of non-homogeneous Markov Processes toward the end of his text. Andersen et al make extensive use of non-homogeneous Markov processes throughout. Finally, you should have a good reference for basic properties of the Volterra Product-Integral. (Andersen et al provide references to the research literature.)

The authors begin their exposition with a short Chapter 1 by introducing some practical applications of multivariate survival analysis along with concrete data sets.

Chapter 2 is another short chapter which (very) briefly outlines the mathematical prerequisites for the remainder of the book. Readers who have carefully studied the prerequisite list will be adequately prepared for this chapter. Those who have not will feel completely overwhelmed.

In Chapter 3, the authors introduce the basic semi parametric models under consideration, including the Cox proportional hazards model, the Aalen multiplicative intensity model and the additive intensity model. These are considered as base models which can then be components of a more comprehensive Markov model. Censored data and basic hypothesis on censoring distributions (in terms of the appropriate filtration) are discussed.

Chapter 4 covers nonparametric estimation and is crucial material in order to validate a parametric or semi parametric model against a given data set. Martingale properties of the Nelson-Aalen estimator, the Kaplan-Meier estimator and a Markov model estimator (called the Aalen-Johansen estimator) are thoroughly studied. Smoothing techniques are discussed and could be used to augment classical nonparametric smoothing techniques offered in Ryan's "Modern Regression Methods".

Chapter 5 is a short chapter on nonparametric hypothesis testing and offers a survey of test statistics used, for example, to test whether two survival distributions are the same.

The authors use the next chapter, Chapter 6, to touch lightly on a number of topics, including parametric models, generalized maximum likelihood estimation, model diagnostics and goodness of fit.

Chapter 7 is really the core of the book and discusses semi parametric regression models from the Markov process point-of-view. The chapter is well-written and covers the basics of Markov model specification, estimation and assessment. The authors illustrate the techniques through the use of several examples.

The book wraps up with discussion on estimator consistency and asymptotic normality in Chapter 8, a brief introduction of subject-specific frailty models in Chapter 9 and an overview of multivariate time scales in Chapter 10.

The book is written in research monograph-style. As such, there are no formal exercises. However several of the results in the book (e.g. Theorem II.6.7) are stated without proof or literature reference and require genuine work on the part of the reader in order verify them.

6 of 11 people found the following review helpful.
Counting processes first, survival analysis second, third,..
By dobs
The book provides an elegant comprehensive approach

to survival analysis and counting processes by

making use of martingale theory. Product integrals

are used as a corner stone of this unified approach.

The treatment of the multiplicative intensity model

in Chapter 3 is especially nice.

However, lost in all of this unification and elegant

mathematical notation is the underlying physical problems,

which after all is the whole point. Unfortunately, my

feeling is that scientists who are really interested

in studying event history data (like surival analysis)

will find this book unhelpful and probably even unreadable.

See all 4 customer reviews...

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• Sales Rank: #7369901 in Books
• Binding: Mass Market Paperback

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Get the know-how to weld like a pro

Being a skilled welder is a hot commodity in today's job market, as well as a handy talent for industrious do-it-yourself repairpersons and hobbyists. Welding For Dummies gives you all the information you need to perform this commonly used, yet complex, task.

This friendly, practical guide takes you from evaluating the material to be welded all the way through the step-by-step welding process, and everything in between. Plus, you'll get easy-to-follow guidance on how to apply finishing techniques and advice on how to adhere to safety procedures.

• Explains each type of welding, including stick, tig, mig, and fluxcore welding, as well as oxyfuel cutting, which receives sparse coverage in other books on welding
• Tips on the best welding technique to choose for a specific project
• Required training and certification information

Whether you have no prior experience in welding or are looking for a thorough reference to supplement traditional welding instruction, the easy-to-understand information in Welding For Dummies is the ultimate resource for mastering this intricate skill.

• Sales Rank: #62755 in Books
• Published on: 2010-10-04
• Released on: 2010-09-24
• Original language: English
• Number of items: 1
• Dimensions: 9.30" h x .72" w x 7.40" l, 1.25 pounds
• Binding: Paperback
• 384 pages

From the Back Cover
Get the know-how to weld like a pro

Welding is a highly sought after skill in today's job market and a handy talent for industrious repairpersons and hobbyists. This friendly, step-by-step guide helps you master this commonly used yet complex task, taking you from material evaluation all the way through the welding process. You'll apply finishing techniques, adhere to safety practices, and learn other methods like brazing and soldering.

• Understand common welding techniques — become familiar with stick, tig, and mig welding

• Pick your metal — choose from options such as steel, stainless steel, and aluminum, and learn the best methods for working with them

• Keep yourself safe — find the right protective gear, manage your workspace, and take care of your equipment

• Prepare your shop — obtain the tools you need, find the ideal location, and plot your setup

• Create cool projects — get started with a basic torch cart and then take it up a notch with a portable welding table and a campfire grill

• Make fixes and repairs — decide the right time to mend and then design a repair strategy and follow your plan

Open the book and find:

• Tips for choosing the best welding technique for your project

• The lowdown on commonly welded metals

• Ways to keep safe in your welding shop

• Instructions for a variety of welding techniques

• Projects for putting your skills to use

• Reasons to become certified

• The best tools for your particular welding job

Learn to:

• Work with various welding techniques

• Follow safety procedures

• Make each joint look professional

• Complete simple do-it-yourself projects

About the Author
Steven Robert Farnsworth is a welding teacher with more than 20 years of experience in teaching all methods of welding. He served in the U.S. Navy, working to keep the fleet afloat with his welding repairs.

Most helpful customer reviews

58 of 59 people found the following review helpful.
Only an introduction for a beginner
By J. Brown
If you've never picked up a torch or gun, this book is worth checking out. It is a reasonable introduction to major welding processes. But there are very few pages that describe in significant detail any particular welding process. Few figures/images in this black-and-white publication limit its usefulness. The type is a large font, margins are wide. In spite of a significant page count, the content is quite limited.

After you have laid your first bead of molten metal, you will rarely--if ever--crack this book open again.

Check out "How to Weld" by Todd Bridigum for a far more in-depth resource that you will use again and again.How To Weld (Motorbooks Workshop)

1 of 1 people found the following review helpful.
Good stuff, dummy!
By W. Richter
Another good book in hte Dummy series. Plenty of info on all types of welding.

22 of 27 people found the following review helpful.
Does NOT talk about fluxcore welding!
By Z
"Explains each type of welding, including stick, tig, mig, and flux core welding". Yes, the book tells you what flux core welding is, devoting a total of 3 sentences to the technique. The author claims MIG is much more common, and thus ignores flux core altogether. I was under the misconception that this book covered ALL the basics. Perhaps MIG is more common in professional environments, but a basic wire feed welder is much cheaper than a full MIG setup AND more versatile in its portability and outdoor capabilities, so I suspect more beginners will actually find themselves with the basic wire feed welder first. I was really hoping to get a better understanding of the differences when using a fluxcore wire instead of a shielding gas, but that's not going to happen here.

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[J127.Ebook] Free PDF Biometric Technology: Authentication, Biocryptography, and Cloud-Based Architecture 1st edition

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This work covers the use of differential scaling for the synthesis of lenses which pass transient TEM waves without reflection, loss or distortion. The subject is also discussed in the context of differential-impendance-matching and transient-time conservation which extends the concepts to anisotropic media. Examples are given, which are useful in EMP simulations, pulse-power equipment, and transient (wide band) antennas in general.

• Sales Rank: #6271191 in Books
• Brand: Brand: Taylor Francis
• Published on: 1990-10-01
• Original language: English
• Number of items: 1
• Binding: Hardcover
• 159 pages

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[P840.Ebook] PDF Ebook Dirty Rotten Strategies: How We Trick Ourselves and Others into Solving the Wrong Problems Precisely (High Reliability and Crisis Managemen

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People and organizations are perfectly capable of making the most outrageous missteps. But, how does a person, organization, or society know that it is committing an error? And, how can we tell that when others are steering us down wrong paths?

Dirty Rotten Strategies delves into how organizations and interest groups lure us into solving the "wrong problems" with intricate, but inaccurate, solutions. Authors Ian I. Mitroff and Abraham Silvers argue that we can never be sure if we have set our sights on the wrong problem, but there are definite signals that can alert us to this possibility.

While explaining how to detect and avoid dirty rotten strategies, the authors put the media, healthcare, national security, academia, and organized religion under the microscope. They offer a biting critique that examines the failure of these major institutions to accurately define our most pressing problems. For example, the U.S. healthcare industry strives to be the most technologically advanced in the world, but, our cutting-edge system does not ensure top-quality care to the largest number of people.

Readers will find that far too many institutions have enormous incentives to let us devise elaborate solutions to the wrong problems. As Thomas Pynchon said," If they can get you asking the wrong questions, then they don't have to worry about the answers."

From a political perspective, this book shows why liberals and conservatives define problems differently, and demonstrates how each political view is incomplete without the other. Our concerns are no longer solely liberal or conservative. In fact, we can no longer trust a single group to define issues across the institutions explored in this book and beyond.

Dirty Rotten Strategies is a bipartisan call for anyone who is ready to think outside the box to address our major concerns as a society—starting today.

• Sales Rank: #1052519 in Books
• Brand: Brand: Stanford Business Books
• Published on: 2009-10-21
• Original language: English
• Number of items: 1
• Dimensions: 9.00" h x .80" w x 6.00" l, 1.03 pounds
• Binding: Hardcover
• 232 pages

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From Publishers Weekly
Starred Review. A pleasant surprise for anyone frustrated with the way complex problems are misconstrued and dumbed-down in daily life, this challenge from business scholars Mitroff and Silvers goes out to media, higher education, health care, and American institutions ranging from government to celebrity, to demonstrate the relevance of concepts in statistical analysis known as "type three" and "type four" errors. Though they're given to philosophical ranting, the authors never struggle with their complex ideas, keeping the text readable for anyone with problems to solve, resolve, absolve or dissolve (i.e., everyone). Those familiar with statistics will find their frustrations with the false type-one/type-two error dichotomy well articulated and addressed, but the theories will connect with anyone who enjoys thinking outside the box. The pair also advocates a new way of considering problems, not just a way of prioritizing them, demonstrating the necessity of new modes of critical thinking when approaching the orthodoxy of American institutions.

Review
"Ian Mitroff has done it again; He and Abraham Silvers have opened our eyes. Here's a lucid and thoughtful account of why we fail to be adequately lucid and thoughtful—and what we can do about it. Bravo!"
—Robert B. Reich, Professor of Public Policy, University of California at Berkeley, former U.S. Secretary of Labor, and author of Supercapitalism: The Transformation of Business, Deomcracy, and Everyday Life

"A bracingly powerful book, which should be required reading for all professionals and experts of every stripe. It will liberate all readers from the tyranny of conventional reasoning. The authors give new meaning to Veblen's classic phrase, "trained incompetence." —-Warren Bennis, University Professor, University of Southern California and co-author of Transparency and Judgment

"Dirty Rotten Strategies is insightful, provocative, and important." —-Karen Armstrong, Best-selling author of The Spiral Staircase

"Ian Mitroff and Abraham Silvers nail one of the most pressing challenges of our time. In a deeper way, they show how we can get so distracted by our assessment of a problem that—no matter how well-executed the solution—it can be a complete waste of time, often making the problem much worse! The "War on Drugs" comes to mind as an example[]This book is a wake-up call for problem solvers."
—John Renesch, futurist and author of Getting to the Better Future: A Matter of Conscious Choosing


"Mitroff and Silvers suggest that our current challenges are 'wicked problems' that can only be managed by mixing conventional and highly unconventional ways of looking at the world. Incisive and original, Dirty Rotten Strategies demonstrates just how valuable systematic thinking can be in helping America to clean up all of its 'messes.'" —Morley Winograd, Executive Director of the Institute for Communication Technology Management, USC Marshall School of Business and co-author of Millennial Makeover
"Ian Mitroff and Abraham Silvers have written one of the definitive books on the tragedy of well-considered, well-meaning and well-researched error. The great merit of their non-technical, powerful book is the clarity with which they demonstrate that many of the most disastrous decisions are made by brilliantly solving wrongly defined problems. Using a prodigious range of examples from politics, health care, organizational disasters, and national security, they show how cognitive and emotional factors conspire to produce what they term the 'Type Four Error,' in which we mislead not only ourselves but others to act and think in ways directly opposed to generally agreed objectives and values. The book's main contribution is to train us to question the ways we define problems, and to help us avoid some of the errors that we all too easily lapse into. It will be of great value to all those who are perplexed by human ability to repeat mistakes in any field of action and thought."
—Yiannis Gabriel, The School of Management, Royal Holloway University of London, author of Organizing Words: A Critical Thesaurus for Social and Organization Studies

About the Author
Ian I. Mitroff is an Emeritus Professor from the University of Southern California, where he taught for 26 years. He is currently the President of Comprehensive Crisis Management, a consulting firm which offers an integrated approach to Crisis Management. Mitroff is also the author of several well-received books, including Crisis Leadership (2003) and Why Some Companies Emerge Stronger and Better From a Crisis (2005). Abraham Silvers was Associate Professor of Statistics at Baylor College of Medicine and Adjunct Professor of Statistics at the University of California at San Francisco Medical School. Having written over 100 papers and book chapters, Silvers was elected a Fellow of the American Statistical Association (ASA) in 1988 for his contributions to clinical trial methodology. In 1993 he received the distinguished medal in environmental statistics from the ASA. He currently provides environmental statistical consulting and support in the design, database management and analysis of health studies and clinical trials.

Most helpful customer reviews

11 of 13 people found the following review helpful.
Project managers need to read this book.
By Lon Roberts - Author "SPC for Right-Brain Thinkers"
Regardless of your political leanings, this is a must-read book for anyone who cares about clear-headed thinking and the ploys that are used to trick us into solving the wrong problems. When "solving the wrong problem" is done unintentionally, the authors refer to this as a Type III error; when it is intentional, they refer to this as a Type IV error.

In essence the book is about qualitative analysis involving high-stakes situations, though the authors don't refer to it as such. It speaks to the logic that is involved (or should be involved) in properly framing and characterizing complex societal problems ... long before the statistician starts crunching numbers. I highly recommend the book to policy makers, decision makers, aspiring statisticians, or anyone, for that matter, who wants to recognize when and how they are being manipulated by politicians, the media, advertisers, think tanks, SIGs, etc. Also, as one who instructs and consults project managers, I believe PMs would benefit from recognizing that many of the requirements-related problems they encounter are essentially Type III errors.

But make no mistake, the authors go after some sacred cows: politics (especially right-of-center politics), the health insurance industry, religion, science, and education. So, you may need to check your sensitivities at the door if you wish to read the book with an open mind.

12 of 15 people found the following review helpful.
Two Books and One is Terrific
By Laurence J. Stybel
These are two powerhouse authors: Mitroff is one of the great figures of 20th Century organization behavior. He is Visiting Professor at the University of California at Berkeley. Abraham Silvers was Associate Professor of Statistics at the Baylor College of Medicine and now provides environmental statistical consulting services.
An interdisciplinary perspective pervades in this book.
If you purchase this book, be aware you are really buying two books. And the title gives away the problem as you will see in this review.
One book is superb.
The superb book is called HOW WE TRICK OURSELVES AND OTHERS INTO SOLVING THE WRONG PROBLEMS PRECISELY. The authors make the case that statistics only looks at Type 1 and Type 2 Errors. Type 1 Errors mean that the decision makers conclude that there is a meaningful difference when there is not. In other words, affirmatively getting the wrong answer. Type 2 Errors mean that decision makers conclude there is not a meaningful difference when there is. In other words, a failure to get it right.
Any leader will have at least an hour worth of Type 1 and Type 2 horror stories. We have all been victims. And we have all been perpetuators.
The authors then introduce a Type 3 Error: precisely solving the wrong problem.
This is a helpful perspective and a valuable one for Boards when they review strategy submitted by the CEO. Instead of asking, "Will it work?"Why not start with "are we looking at the right problem in the first place?"
Because Type 3 errors are part of the human condition, organizations can set up checks and balances to deal with it. For example, at the Board Level, meaningful Board of Director Self Evaluation does help the Board be aware of when its own group dynamics might cause it to logically and correctly solve the wrong problem.
We are all imperfect creatures and are prone to Type 3 Errors.
Ah, but then there is that second book.
It begins with the discussion of Type Four Errors: deliberate manipulation of data to cause leaders to solve the wrong problem precisely. They say it is due to "self-righteousness, overzealousness, malice, and narrow ideology." In other words, dirty rotten scoundrels contribute to DIRTY ROTTEN STRATEGIES.
This second book clearly is driven by the authors' own ideology and lack of historical perspective. They are out of their league. There is nothing new in Type 4 errors except the commonsense notion that people do manipulate information to suit their advantage. Is that news?
This second book has vitriol but lacks depth or practical solutions.
I want to emphasize that the first book is admirable. Too bad you can't buy one without getting the other.

##

Larry Stybel.
Boardoptions.com

1 of 1 people found the following review helpful.
mediocre analysis fascinating topic
By mikemac9
This book addresses a fascinating topic of how it is, both as individuals and societies, that we go off solving the wrong problem or solving problems incorrectly. It is clear from the broad range of examples they give that they have put considerable effort into studying the issue and reaching their conclusions.

However reading thru it I found the writing stiff and tedious. Moreover they seem to take polemic stands that seem unwarranted. I stopped reading the book when I got to the following: "The inside of shopping malls is so carefully controlled and staged that it looks and feels like outside, and such outside places as theme parks, for example, look and feel like inside. As a result the concepts 'outside' and 'inside' don't mean anything anymore." At which point I decided I had better uses for my time...

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